FREE ESSAY ON THE APPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY IN THE FIRST DECADE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

THE APPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY IN THE FIRST DECADE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

The Applications of Technology in the First Decade of the Twenty-First Century
A quote I heard many times when I was in high school and which I now know traces back to
Sir Francis Bacon, one of our earliest scientist or philosophers as they were then
called, is the statement Knowledge Is Power. Today, I believe that the fuller, more
correct statement is to say, the application of knowledge is power. The study of science,
and technology subjects will broader our opportunities in life. As we continue to advance
to the 21st century- now lesser than 30 days away-we are well aware that technology is
possibly the hottest industrial commodity around the world today. In the years ahead, it
will be an increasingly critical factor in determining the success or failure of
businesses. It is the fuel many of us are looking at to help us win this race to the 21st
century. To do that, we should make technology matter. In this paper I am going to share
my technology forecasts. I try to focus on my new forecasts a decade into the future -
the first decade of the 21st century, because that is how far most businesses need to be
looking ahead.
There has never been a neutral or value-free, technology. All technologies are power.
They evoke economic and social consequences in direct proportion to their dislocation of
the existing economy and its institutions.
I believe that technologies such as: biotechnology and genetic engineering, intelligent
materials, the miniaturization of electronics, and smart manufacturing systems, and
controls, will be the hottest technologies in the next decade. I am going to put together
a list of what I think as the top ten innovative products that will result from those
technologies.
Number one on the list is something we call genetic. There are pharmaceutical products
that will come from the massive genetic research going on around the world today. In ten
years, we will have new ways to treat many of our ills - from allergies to ADIS. We may
see the discovery of new methods of treatment for various types of cancer, for multiple
sclerosis, osteoporoses, Lou Gehrig's and Alzheimer's disease, to name just a few.
The biotechnology frontier, especially developments in the field of genetic, promises-
and to some degree has already archived - a revolution in agriculture and human health
care. But proving the means to develop plant species that are more
disease-and-pest-resistant, more tolerant of drought, and able to grow during extended
periods of adverse conditions. These technologies will very likely provide future
increasing in agricultural productivity. So far, these techniques have not add much to
world food production; recent grow has come primarily from increasing acreage in
production, in response to higher grain prices. However, further expansion of productive
land is limited, and the increased application of fertilizer appears to be reaching a
point of diminishing returns. Therefore, increased agricultural productivity from this
new field could be essential to feed the growing population. The mapping of human and
plant genomes, a process already well underway, will provide greatly increased knowledge
of genetic processes and, to some extend, information about how to control them. For
humans, this will provide the means to deal with diseases that have genetic origins or
result from man functioning of genetic material in the body. These diseases include
potentially: cancer, cystic fibrosis, Gaucher's, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, AIDS,
hypercholesterolemia, and many others. Furthermore, genome analysis of an individual can
indicate propensity to diseases whose symptoms have not yet been manifested. Scientists
believe that many psychological and behavior attributes can be genetically controlled and
therefore subject to diagnosis and eventually, for aberrant conditions, corrected. Such
uses of this technology, of courses, raise serious social and ethical questions that must
be considered. Other applications of biotechnology might produce novel protein for food
replacing meat, stimulate awareness and evaluation of microbial threats (including
archaea, ancient bacteria, being perhaps more adaptable and potentially hazardous than
was previous thought), and creation of plantation to produce and distribute biological
products in the ocean. The process of cloning was perfected; evidence by the fact that in
1997 a sheep was successfully cloned in Scotland. Hence, biotechnology could eventually
eliminate food shortages, improve health, and extend life expectancy.
Number two on the list is the personalized computer. The personal computer now sitting on
our desk will be replaced by a very powerful, personalized computer. It will be able to
send and receive wireless data. It will recognize your voice and follow your voice
commands. It will include a variety of security and service tools that will make the
computer fit your own individual needs. When we turn on our personalized computer the
intelligent agents built into it might automatically show us high-lights and stories from
last night's football game. It could display the current stock report on your own
portfolio and ask it you would like to make any changes. It would give us a traffic
report for our normal commute to work and suggest an alternate, if necessary. Finally, it
may let us know what the lunch specials are at our favorite restaurants and ask if we
would like to make reservations.
The third product on my list is the multi-fuel automobile. In ten years, our cars will
have to meet even stricter requirements for emissions and efficiency. And to do that, we
are going to see a gradual shift to other fuel and power sources. Barring a major oil
crisis, we don't see a rapid shift to those alternatives. The internal combustion engine
will still have a major place in ten years. But we will see an increase in vehicles
running on energy sources like batteries, kinetic energy, fuel cells, and hybrid sources.
At first, these will be used in low-weight vehicles that typically travel short
distances. But as these alternative- powered vehicles are introduced into the general
population, many of our experts believe that they will likely run on a combination of
fuels - like reformulated gasoline, electricity, and compressed natural gas. 
The fourth product is the next generation television set. Ninety-nine percent of American
homes have televisions, and over the next decade, we will be replacing them. These new
television sets will be wide-screen, digital, high-definition models with extremely sharp
clarity. Many will be so flat that we will hang them on the wall much like a large
painting. Eventually, these televisions will merge with the personalized computer I
mentioned earlier.
Of course, we are going to have to pay for all these wonderful products, and we will
probably be doing that will the fifth item on the list, electronic cash. We will be using
electronic money for everything from buying soda in a vending machine to making an
international transaction over our computer. In ten years, our pocket might not jingle,
because credit-card-sized smart cards will have all but replaced our cash and keys. At
colleges, we will developed a system that will allow students to pay their tuition, sign
up for classes, download textbooks onto their computer, do their laundry, enter their
dorm, and order a pizza, all with one smart card. That card, of course, will be directly
linked to their parents' bank account!
The next product on my list is the home health monitor. These devices will be
inexpensive, simple-to-use, and non-invasive (which basically means they won't puncture
our skin). We will use them to monitor our health conditions right at home. They will be
able to track a variety of our physical functions - like liver, levels of cholesterol,
triglycerides, sugar, hormones, water, salt, and potassium. Monitoring our total health
will be as simple as keeping track of our weight today. The future industrial
applications of biology and computing will allow more people than ever before to
participate in creating imaginative service, to build new markets and to generate
personal wealth.
Number seven on the list is another one for our cars. It is smart maps and global
positioning systems. Already, we can get a global positioning system in our cars, and it
will show us where we are on a map and plot routes. But it won't give us any information
about what's going on around us. That is what's going to be different in ten years. We
will be combining global position system with the traffic management infrastructure to
help manage traffic flow. So, our dashboard map will show us where traffic problems are,
and it will plot the best rout around them.
We will also be using global positioning systems to help stop crime by giving us the
power to monitor the location of our cars and other valuables. And we will be able to
follow the exact location of our most precious valuable. Parents will be able to follow
the location of their children as they walk home from school.
The eighth product on my list is also one we might have in our cars, and we might also
have it our office buildings, pipelines, airplanes, and even our sports equipments. These
are new, smart materials that will give off warnings when they detect excessive stress.
Materials in bridges or airplanes, for instance, could send a signal to a central
operator when they detect stress, and that operator could send a return signal for the
materials to respond to the stress. Automobile parts could give us a similar warning when
they are approaching the point of breakdown.
What is really amazing is that these materials will be designed with sensors built into
the molecular structure of material. And, not too far in the future, they will be
inexpensive enough to be in products all around us.
Ninth on my list are anti-aging and weight-control products. That is something we would
like to see. Over the next decade, we will see the development of a host of high-tech
weight-control and anti-aging products for all the aging baby boomers. Unfortunately, no
Fountain of Youth is on the horizon. If it was, I would be back in the lab working on it
myself. Nevertheless, new products will make aging a little less traumatic. In fact, we
think technology will allow us to look forward to active and comfortable retirements well
into our 80s.
These new products may include: weight-control drugs that use the body's natural
weight-control mechanism, wrinkle creams that actually work foods with enhanced
nutrients, and an effective cure for baldness.
The final item on my list is not technically a single, specific product. It is more a
trend that will change the way we obtain many products, especially computers and major
household appliances. Within the next decade, we will begin to lease these products
rather than buy them.
Already, some utilities are developing programs that would allow you to lease expensive
appliances (like water heaters) that use their respective sources of power. The trend for
utilities is that over the next several years they will transform into comfort companies.
Instead of selling you a furnace, for instance, they well sell you the comfort of
maintaining the proper temperature in every room in your house.
Those are my predictions. But what may be even more important are the lessons we have
learned as we've put together the forecasts. Three of those lessons are particularly
noteworthy. They apply to business decisions that leaders in any industry make in this
race to the 21st century.
The first lesson we learned is that we have to be more aggressive than ever in tracking
technology. Technology is growing and spreading around the world faster than zebra
muscles in the Great Lakes. Historically, the United States has taken the entrepreneurial
lead in developing new technologies. Biotechnology is a good example. But today, that
entrepreneurial spirit is spreading around the global, and hot new technologies are
growing everywhere. 
But here is the problem: That makes our jobs even more challenging, because: one more
technology means increased competitive pressure. And two more technology means it will
become harder and harder and harder to identify and keep track of the specific
developments they can make a real difference for us, or our competitor.
I mention that the increased emphasis on time-to-market has been one of the big
competitive change in the R & D (Research and Development) over the pass twenty years. We
see it every day in the United States. Just recently, a new toothbrush was developed for
Teledyne Waterpik five times faster than any other one of the market. Another example is
Battlle company, developed the coating that was the key ingredient for the
next-generation interactive globe. These were completely new developments, but the
company had to take them from the idea stage to the store shelf in a year or less-and, of
course, in time for the Christmas buying reason. Therefore, time-to-market is the key
competitive factor.
Of course, to get new products out on the market quickly, we have to be able to identify
and acquire the key developments in today's widespread sea of technology.
The second lesson is one that folks in Ames may be as familiar with as we are in Chicago:
We'll go crazy trying to predict ISU-Illinois basketball games. In other words, stick to
what you know - and team up with people who know the rest. Companies which have business
in technology, especially technology in several key markets, are often comfortable making
predictions. We cannot predict who is going to win Olympic medals, but we can forecast
how technology will change the Olympic games over the next twenty years. 
Even thought my dorms sits practically across the street from ISU, and I can see Hilton
Coliseum form my room window, there is no was I am going to try to predict what might
happen when ISU meets up with Illinois.
And with technology and global markets expanding in nearly every conceivable field,
industry's facing a similar challenge. It's getting harder ad harder to know everything
we need to know about every aspect of our business.
Today, for more and more companies, the answer is the alliance. Companies are focusing
their internal efforts on their own core competencies, and they are developing alliances
with other organizations to bring in technology related to their business. Through these
partnerships, they are gaining access to new technologies and world-class scientist and
engineers - and at the same time reducing costs.
Over the next ten to fifteen years, we are going to see business going one step further.
This movement toward more technology alliances and partnerships is really just a
transition. Basically, we are going to see the emergence of the virtual company and the
total R & D alliance. A company might maintain a vice president of technology to manage a
network of R & D alliances with supplies, universities, and R & D organizations. Maybe it
would have a staff of its own scientists and engineers housed right in one or more of
those other organizations. This type of setup could be the ultimate way for a company to
focus its sources on its core business and still be able to access the latest technology
at the least cost.
That brings me to the third and final lesson about the race to the 21st century. So far,
I've mentioned scanning for technology and building alliances. The third point refers to
making technology matter.
As I mentioned above, technology alone is not the fuel that can give us the lead in this
race we are all in. There were many amazing technologies that did not make our top-ten
list. They were fascinating to dream about. But that does not mean they would lead to
valuable products.
And it gets even more complex, because many of these technologies will merge and open up
vast new areas for growth. For instance, when we cross biotechnology and advanced
electronic, that opens up a whole new field of biologically based electronics. Will we be
growing organic computer chips? 
Many, if not most, of tomorrow's top products will come from this merging of two or more
technologies. Mastering this vast web of technology will be a necessary step in winning
the race to the 21st century and beyond. But it won't be sufficient.
The companies that will win that race are the companies that will be able to anticipate
market forces and acquire incorporate the right technology into their business.
We need to combine a savvy understanding of market forces with a through knowledge of
available and potential technology. That combination will be the fuel that powers us to
develop the hottest products of tomorrow.
Innovative thinking, powered by advanced technology, fueled by consumer demand, driven by
responsibility and common sense will allow us taking the lead on preserving the
environment and keeping customer priorities front and center. But taking that type of
initiative to link technology to the marketplace we can use technology to do more than
just improve efficient. Our goal should be to capture and use technology to gain
value-and grab a competitive edge.
The story with Teledyne WaterPik's SenSonic toothbrush I mentioned earlier is one of the
best recent examples of a company using that combination of market awareness and
technology initiative to grab a competitive edge. They are using technology and market
awareness to provide their customers with a more valuable product. And that is how they
are working to win the race to the 21st century.
I have made a lot of predictions about technology and about this race that we are all in.
But still, there is really only one prediction that I can guarantee. It is that market
and technology forces will continue to transform industry, and we will all have to keep
up with them if we want to succeed.
We will all have to be futurists. Each business will have to develop its own forecast of
leading technology and market trends that will impact the company in the decade ahead.
And, they will have to continually monitor and revise that forecast and their own
technology strategies. 
Technology alone will not secure our success. But focusing on the future with on eye on
the marketplace and the other on technology trends- that is what will put us in the fast
lane to the 21st century.